GLOBAL ISSUES: Why the youth jobs crisis is becoming global

Apprenticeships may be one way for young people to get into the workforce and learn important skills while being paid – Image: Joerg Carstensen/picture alliance

Young people in much of the world face growing competition for entry-level jobs as graduate numbers rise, hiring slows and AI-driven disruption adds uncertainty to career prospects.

The youth job crisis that first became obvious in China points to major economic and social problems that governments and businesses need to address.

Last year, unemployment, weak job prospects and a general lack of economic opportunities drove young people onto the streets in Kenya, Peru, Nepal, Indonesia and the Philippines.

This year, concerns about youth unemployment have added fuel to protests in South Africa and Morocco. In India, they helped give rise to the Cockroach Janta Party, a movement that started as a satirical social media project but quickly gained national attention.

China’s youth unemployment problem

Youth unemployment refers to the share of young people, typically aged 15 to 24, who are actively seeking work but cannot find it. The rate is usually higher than overall unemployment because young people have less experience and networking opportunities, but that gap is widening in a growing number of countries.

China became an early example of the problem as university enrolment and graduate numbers grew faster than job creation, contributing to anxiety, long job searches and underemployment during a period of weaker economic growth.

In May, the official unemployment rate among ​urban 16-to 24-year-olds in ‌China was ​15.6%, according to Reuters news agency based on National Bureau of Statistics data.

While this represents the lowest level ⁠in 11 ​months, it remains three times higher than the overall unemployment rate of around 5%. Since 2023, the Chinese youth unemployment figures exclude the millions of university students, making comparisons with older data harder.

Is AI reshaping entry-level job opportunities?

China is not the only country with weak growth, slowing upward mobility, or a sense of intergenerational inequality.

In other countries, technology, sluggish hiring and rising competition have also weakened the link between a university degree and a secure white-collar career.

Besides the growing number of graduates, another factor eating away at confidence is the fear that artificial intelligence (AI) could turn into a massive entry-level job destroyer. Experts are not yet clear about its impact.

“In the UK, new postings for graduate jobs have fallen faster than for non-graduate jobs, and many of these roles are highly exposed to AI,” said Golo Henseke, an associate professor in applied economics at University College London.

His research has shown that “where firms have taken up AI faster, employment of 15-to 24-year-olds has grown more slowly, while prime-age employment holds up.” But for now, the AI-effect is small compared to the regular business cycle.

Sara Elder, a youth employment expert at the Geneva-based International Labour Organization (ILO), agrees. AI may be one of the current drivers of stagnating youth employment, but she considers other factors more important.

Right now, economies are not dynamic and job creation is just not keeping pace with the number of young people seeking jobs, says Elder.

“This is then exacerbated by the tendency of employers to raise hiring criteria in ways that make it more difficult for young people with little job experience to get their foot in the door,” said Elder.

Youth employment growth is strong in Latin America, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, even if the quality of jobs is low, says the ILO’s Sara Elder – Image: Stefan Sauer/dpa/picture alliance

What type of jobs are impacted where?

Without these entry-level jobs, young people may never get the experience they need for better jobs. Consequences could be lower consumption, lower home ownership rates and delayed family formation — not to mention widespread frustration.

Currently across Europe, there is no broad youth jobs crisis, says Henseke, who specializes in education, labor markets and human resources.

Since 2022, the share of young people not in employment, education, or training has increased in only a handful of European countries like Austria and Germany and fallen in much of southern Europe.

“Youth unemployment is not new to Europe either,” said Henseke. “It was severe after the financial crisis, and the biggest improvements since have been in the countries that struggled most then.”

But the ILO found that between 2023 and 2025 youth unemployment rates rose in eight of the world’s 11 regions, like East Asia, North America (the US and Canada), Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

Opportunities for young people have declined in manufacturing, construction and the service sectors, in particular.

“Jobs for young people in high-skilled knowledge-based technical areas, like science, engineering, health and information and communication technologies, have fared better, showing continued growth in most countries,” said Elder.

What can be done about entry-level jobs?

In Germany, a survey this spring by consultancy EY found that students are much less optimistic about finding suitable work after graduation than they were two years ago. Job security now also ranks ahead of salary as their top priority when choosing an employer.

This leaves lots of room for improvement. Policymakers and employers will need to make big investments to create decent jobs and “support young people’s school-to-work transitions,” said Elder.

Golo Henseke is cautious about blaming young people’s skills. “It is very unlikely that today’s graduates are less capable than those who left education just a few years ago, and the skills employers want have not changed overnight.”

“More than anything, what would help is economic growth,” concluded Henseke.

DW.com/NAN 22-07-26

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