Wildfires around LA have forced thousands to flee their homes – Image: Josh Edelson/AFP
The specter of flames devouring built environments has become more familiar over recent years and is often blamed on climate change. But is that always the case?
As wildfires fanned by heavy winds continue to burn around Los Angeles, claiming at least 10 lives and destroying more than 10,000 homes and buildings, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service on Friday confirmed 2024 as officially the hottest year on record.
It is too soon to definitively determine the role of rising global temperatures in the Los Angeles fires, as not all wildfires can be linked to climate change. But studies from World Weather Attribution, a collective of scientists that analyses extreme weather events, have found connections between planetary warming and some recent major fires.
Fires that were connected to climate change
The Pantanal Wetlands in Brazil experienced devastating wildfires last June — outside the region’s normal fire season — leading to the destruction of around 440,000 hectares of land within the space of one month.
The 2023 Canada fires devastated vast areas of land – Image: Kamloops Fire Rescue/Handout/REUTERS
Attribution scientists also established a link between rising global temperatures and the wildfires that swept through Eastern Canada in late spring of 2023.
With May and June the warmest they had been since 1940, the research concluded that climate change had more than doubled the likelihood of the conditions that fueled the devastating fires. They were so severe that they accounted for more than a quarter of all forests lost worldwide for 2023.
While wildfires are a regular occurrence in California, particularly during summer and autumn, climate change has increased burned areas in the state by 172% in recent decades, according to an analysis last year.
Overall, wildfires are becoming more widespread in many regions of the world with the number doubling over the past twenty years. They are also increasingly intense.
While wildfires are a regular occurence in California, scientist say climate change is increasing the area they are burning – Image: David Swanson/REUTERS
Likewise, forest fires are becoming more frequent with one study showing that at least twice as much tree cover is now lost in fires compared with two decades ago. Around 70% of wooded areas lost to flames between 2001 and 2023 occurred in countries with large boreal forests, such as Canada and Russia. Climate change is seen as the main driver of that fire activity.
How do rising temperatures impact wildfires?
Wildfires themselves are not caused by climate change, with most sparked by human activity.
However, the burning of fossil fuels which pumps greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere has led to rising global temperatures and an increased likelihood and intensity of extreme heat.
Temperature increase from rising levels of atmospheric CO2
A warmer planet can worsen so-called fire weather, laying the ideal hot, dry, and windy groundwork for flames to spread.
Dry conditions that can lead to drought — a lower-than-average amount of rainfall in a particular region — are more difficult to link to climate change. Causes can depend on the type and location of the drought.
Scientists say droughts linked to low soil moisture show clearer links to climate change than those driven by low groundwater or river levels. Regions more at risk of these types of droughts include western North America, the Mediterranean, parts of Africa, and northeast South America.
In the case of the Los Angeles fires researchers are pointing to rapid swings between extremely wet and dry weather — termed “hydroclimate whiplash” — as the key climate driver.
According to a paper published on Thursday,
an unusually wet winter during 2022/2023 helped grass and bush to grow. That was then turned to potential fire fuel due to a record-dry summer in 2024 and a late start to the rainy season this year.
Climate change is also extending wildfire seasons around the world by an average of two weeks, and they are no longer only taking place during these periods, as the fires in California this year show.
Since New Year, Los Angeles has witnessed 40 times the average number of fire alerts seen during the same period from 2012-2024, according to the World Resources Institute, a US-based research organization.
Due to more frequent and widespread wildfires, Europe is expanding its fire response capacity – Image: Nikos Christofakis/REUTERS
What can be done?
There needs to be more funding for early warning systems, more guidance on forest management as well as public awareness raising, given that most fires are started by human activity, Julie Berckmans, an expert in climate risk assessment with the European Environment Agency, told DW last year.
In Europe, where wildfires are becoming more frequent, intense and widespread, authorities are expanding fire response. In 2023, the EU Civil Protection Mechanism and RescEU programs, which aid member states in their efforts to tackle extreme fires, doubled its fleet of planes, helicopters and firefighters, and have allocated €600 million ($615 million) to invest in expanding capacity by 2030.
However, some experts argue more resources need to be put into fire prevention. This includes increasing the resilience of forests through shifting away from monocultures, spacing trees properly, and reducing floor vegetation through prescribed burning or introducing grazing animals like sheep and cattle.
Encouraging precautionary behavior among citizens is also important, Alexander Held, a senior expert at the European Forest Institute, told DW last year. Avoiding flammable plant species in gardens, cleaning roof gutters, and removing garden waste around buildings can help reduce the available fuel for fires.
Others argue ultimately the world needs to urgently stop burning fossil fuels. Citing the link between climate change and wildfires, last year the Union of Concerned Scientists, a US-based science advocacy organization, urged the CEOs of leading fossil fuel companies to slash their emissions. (DW/NAN 11-01-25)
