International arrivals to Europe in 2026 are forecast to be driven by ongoing recovery from long-haul markets, especially in Asia-Pacific – Image: Oanh Mj/Unsplash
Despite a slower global economy, Europe’s tourism outlook remains positive. Travellers continue to prioritise holidays in their spending and increasingly use technology to find better value and more comfortable travel periods. According to the European Travel Commission’s latest quarterly report, year-to-date international arrivals to Europe rose 3% year-on-year, while overnight arrivals increased by 2.7%. The report forecasts a 6.8% rise in international arrivals to Europe in 2026, driven by ongoing recovery from long-haul markets, especially in Asia-Pacific.
Europe’s tourism sector continued to perform strongly over the summer months, as travellers embraced cross-border experiences despite higher costs and record heatwaves. Although travel costs remain elevated, inflation for tourism-related services is easing, and travellers are allocating a growing share of their household budgets to holidays. In Europe, travel expenditure is projected to account for 3.1% of total consumer spending, exceeding both last year’s share and the 2010–2019 average. Total visitor spending is forecasted to grow by 9.9% in 2025, underscoring Europe’s enduring appeal and the resilience of consumer demand.
Solid summer across Europe’s diverse destinations
Following this strong summer high season, most European destinations showed solid performance. Out of 34 reporting countries, 30 reported increases in arrivals and/or overnight stays compared to last year. Those included Southern Mediterranean destinations such as Malta (+12%), Cyprus (+10%), Spain (+4%) and Portugal (+2%), where sun-and-beach travel once again anchored performance. Interest in Northern Europe remained high, with Norway (+14%) and Iceland (+3%) attracting visitors seeking nature and cooler temperatures. Finland (+14%), Latvia (+7%) and Estonia (+4%) also posted notable gains, while Poland (+13%) and Hungary (+9%) continued to benefit from their strong price competitiveness. In contrast, Germany (-2%), following last year’s Euro football tournament, and Türkiye (-1%), due to cost increases, saw slight declines. Together, these results underline the resilience and regional diversity of Europe’s tourism landscape.
Europe’s Tourism Shows Resilience Amid Higher Costs and Shifting Travel Trends
- The European Travel Commission’s Q3 2025 report highlights robust summer demand and a 9.9% expected rise in traveller spending across Europe this year.
- While heatwaves and higher prices shaped the season, travellers continued to explore European destinations, supported by new digital tools and flexible travel habits.
- Long-haul arrivals from Asia surged, the U.S. market remained strong, and Europe’s tourism outlook for 2026 points to stable performance.
Evolving consumer habits and the role of technology
Weather events and capacity constraints again affected many travellers this summer and featured prominently in online discussions about travel in Europe. Findings from the report indicate that some travellers are now reconsidering when they travel: 28% from eight key source markets plan to shift their trips to different months over the next two years, mainly to avoid crowds, save money, and escape extreme heat.
Weather events and capacity constraints again affected many travellers this summer and featured prominently in online discussions about WHEN to travel in Europe – Image: Ilya Semenov/Unsplash
At the same time, travellers are increasingly using digital tools to make smarter choices. The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in travel planning has nearly doubled, rising from 10% last year to 18% in 2025, led by Gen-Z and Millennials. Travellers increasingly use AI to find better deals and plan trips away from peak months and crowded locations. Usage is highest in China (40%), followed by the United States (27%), showing how digital habits vary across markets. With online travel agencies (OTAs) now integrating AI-powered assistants, the influence of these tools is expected to expand further. For destinations, AI presents new opportunities to reach younger audiences, promote shoulder-season travel, and offer more personalised visitor experiences.
Value and affordability shape travellers’ choices
Value for money remains a primary driver of travel demand in Europe. Although price inflation for tourism-related services is slowing, prices are still well above pre-pandemic levels. This has intensified competition among destinations and encouraged travellers to look for affordable alternatives that offer similar experiences. Central and Eastern European countries such as Poland, Hungary, and Slovenia have benefited most from this trend, attracting visitors drawn by both quality and affordability.
Long-haul recovery led by Asia
Travel from long-haul markets to Europe continues to strengthen. Japan recorded a 24% year-on-year increase in arrivals to Europe, supported by improving air connectivity and a stronger yen. China also posted a 21% increase, with Chinese outbound travel increasingly driven by younger travellers. However, for both markets, more than three-quarters of reporting destinations remain below pre-pandemic volume levels. In comparison, travel from the United States is up 5% year-on-year, adding to a cumulative 35% gain above pre-pandemic levels. According to Oxford Economics’ latest global risk survey, potential disruptions stemming from U.S. trade policy are viewed as the main downside risk to international travel over the coming years.
Despite a slower global economy, Europe’s tourism outlook remains positive. Travellers continue to prioritise holidays in their spending and increasingly use technology to find better value and more comfortable travel periods. The reports forecasts a 6.8% rise in international arrivals to Europe in 2026, driven by ongoing recovery from long-haul markets, especially in Asia-Pacific.
Commenting on the results, Miguel Sanz, President of the European Travel Commission, noted:
This summer once again confirmed a strong appetite for travel to and within Europe, even amid higher costs and shifting conditions. Travellers are becoming more selective, seeking value, comfort, and authenticity while using new tools like AI to plan smarter journeys. The continued recovery from Asia and stable demand from the United States highlight Europe’s enduring global appeal. Our priority now is to help destinations harness these trends to promote year-round travel, longer stays, and greater shared value for communities and visitors alike.
Discover the full report at: https://etc-corporate.org/reports/european-tourism-2025-trends-prospects-q3-2025/
About
The European Travel Commission (ETC) represents the national tourism organisations of Europe. Established in 1948, ETC’s mission is to strengthen the sustainable development of Europe as a tourist destination and to promote Europe in third markets. Its 36-member tourism boards work together to build the value of tourism for all the diverse European destinations through cooperation in sharing best practices, market intelligence and promotion. For more information, visit europeantravelcommission.com. (NAN/ETC 14-11-25)
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