French president Emanuel Macron and German chancellor Olaf Scholz: A weakened Paris and Berlin is bad news in uncertain times, experts warn – Image: ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images
After sacking his political nemesis, Finance Minister Christian Lindner, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a vote of confidence in his government for January 2025. The Social Democratic Party plans to hold snap elections in March at the latest, though the opposition may push to expedite this timeline.
For months, the European Union has been preparing for a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025. It is no secret that most European politicians would have preferred Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to win, if nothing else for the continuity it would have represented.
‘Decisive moment in European history’
As some 50 leaders gathered in Budapest for a meeting of the European Political Community, many of its most powerful voices projected an image of calm and sangfroid.
“This is a decisive moment in history for us Europeans,” said French President Emmanuel Macron, who has long argued that the EU must more deeply integrate and stand more independently on the world stage.
“Do we want to read the history written by others — the wars launched by Vladimir Putin, the US election, China’s technological or trade choices,” Macron asked. “Or do we want to write our own history? I think we have the strength to write it.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who hails from Germany, echoed this sentiment. “The future of Europe is in our hands… We’ve shown that Europe can take responsibility by standing together.”
When it came to the news from Berlin, NATO chief Mark Rutte played down concerns. “I’m sure that when it comes to defense, when it comes to foreign policy, that Germany will be able to fulfill its obligations,” Rutte said. “I’m not worried about that.”
Olaf Scholz was not present at the start of the talks, occupied with the political crisis at home.
‘The danger in the White House’, reads the headline of German newspaper Frankfurter Rundschau – Image: Martin Meissner/AP Photo/picture alliance
Berlin and Paris hamstrung
Paris and Berlin are normally deemed the key axis of power in the European Union, using their combined clout to steer the 27-member club through crises in whatever direction they see fit.
Macron is already weakened at home, where his centrist Renaissance party is now the junior partner in a coalition government with the conservative Republicans party. The ascendant fortunes of the far-right National Rally, as well as a surprise electoral victory for a broad left-wing coalition, have loosened his once-strong grip on French politics.
As Jana Puglierin of the European Council Foreign Relations explained, Germany might have to wait until June to have a new, fully functioning government. “Germany will not be able to play a leading role at the European level,” the analyst wrote in a statement shared with DW.
“At first glance, it seems incomprehensible that the coalition government collapsed on the same day as Trump’s election. Now more than ever, Germany is called upon to act,” the senior policy fellow at the think tank’s Berlin office said. “But it is also true that the coalition has been completely incapable of governing in recent months.”
Climate, Ukraine, security, trade: The rocky road ahead
It’s unfortunate timing for a weakening of the Franco-German motor.
Trump’s 2017-2021 presidential term was a rough time for the trans-Atlantic relationship, marked by tit-for-tat tariffs in an escalating trade war and Washington blasting other NATO members for perceived lackluster defense spending. Even out of office, Trump spooked Europeans by saying he wouldn’t necessarily come to the defense of fellow alliance members under attack if they hadn’t spent enough on their militaries.
Once in office, Trump has vowed to immediately “end” the conflict in Ukraine, by pushing Kyiv toward negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Washington’s arms support has been vital for Ukrainian forces fighting off Russia’s full-scale invasion. If scaled back, the EU will be under huge pressure to step up.
His return also presents challenges for European commitments on climate change, just as political will falters in many states. Trump has vowed to drill for oil and cut the climate regulations implemented by outgoing President Joe Biden. In Europe, critics of the EU’s more ambitious initiatives will likely feel bolstered by Trump 2.0.
Boost for far right?
Still, Trump’s return is not unwelcome for all European politicians. The host of Thursday’s European Political Community, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the closest ally of the next US president in the EU. One of the first to congratulate Trump, Orban hailed the result as “the biggest comeback in US history” and a “much-needed victory for the world!” on social media.
Nonetheless, Marta Lorimer, an expert on the European far right at the University of Cardiff, told DW that other prominent far-right figures like Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French political heavyweight Marine Le Pen might not feel just as enthusiastic.
“It doesn’t really change much for most of them,” she said, even if they will be pleased to see their anti-immigration policies picked up stateside.
In fact, for European far-right parties who have tried to distance themselves from the more radical policies on issues like abortion access espoused by figures close to Trump, it might not be a boon to have him in office. “It’s also a government that is going to do things that are not going to be good for Europe,” she stressed.
In contrast, Germany’s snap election is an opportunity for the far-right Alternative for Germany party to prove itself on a national level. They’ve had some strong results in regional elections over the past year, Lorimer pointed out. “That is certainly going to raise some concerns in Germany and across Europe.” (DW/NAN 9-11-24)
